A similar post to the previous one - what is expectation?
32 Countries go to the World Cup, and each one has an expectation.
There are duffers like New Zealand, Algeria and North Korea (and my native Scotland, should we ever qualify again) whose expectation is that they'll go out first round, without a win. Exceeding that expectation - scoring a goal, winning - is easy, you might think. Paraguay are the greatest example at 2010.
The middle-ranking nations - Ghana, Slovenia/akia, Australia, US, Mexico, Uruguay - all expect a gallant run to the second round, not necessarily getting there, and being pumped by the group winner and the second round opponents. That is easy to manage - qualify for the second round. Uruguay are greatly exceeding this. Ghana should be
The so-called big guns, though. Okay, I'll list them:
- England
- Germany
- Spain
- Netherlands
- Italy
- France
- Portugal
- Argentina
- Brazil
All of these nations have an expectation that they would win the World Cup. Add in Uruguay, and that's 10 countries for whom anything less than the semis is abject failure - sack the coach, ditch the team. Of those, two went out in the group stages, two in the second round, two in the quarters, so six nations have abjectly failed. However awful England were, they and Argentina lost to the current favourites, the Germans. Arguably, only Brazil, Germany and Italy have the history, and Spain the current squad and form, to have such an expectation.
Looking at the (flawed) FIFA rankings the following expectations are obvious:
- Brazil & Spain - finalists
- Netherlands & Portugal - semis
- Italy, Germany, Argentina & England - quarters
- France & Uruguay - 2nd Round
So there is over-achievement - Germany & Uruguay - and underachievement - England's is not as abject as Italy or Portugal. (Portugal were incredibly lucky to get even that far, they were abysmal - Ronaldo looked lost, Queiroz shared the incompetence of his predecessor at Man Utd.)
A final point - England were used to Quarter Finals according to the press. The Euros' Quarters are equivalent to the World Cup second round - 16 teams start the tournament, not 32.
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