Global Soccerball: 08/10/07

Friday, 10 August 2007

Weekend Preview

The new season asks a lot of questions, some of which might be answered this weekend.

Liverpool vs Aston Villa
Rafa has spent the second highest this summer, and the fans will be expecting them to push on and challenge for the title. While the season is a marathon and not a sprint, Liverpool have essentially lost the title in the first few weeks for the past few years by drawing or losing fixtures like this. The team that wins the title this season will need 90-92 points, meaning that they can not win at most 10 matches; messing about in the first five matches means that when Liverpool click at Christmas time, they'll still have to make ground up on Chelsea and Man Utd.
Little Martin has questions to answer; if he can start well, then his team can push towards Europe, otherwise, it's steady progress at best.
Verdict: Draw

Sunderland vs Spurs
Questions surround both sides; can Roy Keane prove himself as a manager? can Spurs push into the Big Four? I think in this case, Spurs will prove too strong; Berbatov and Keane have an understanding allowing Bent to be blooded gradually. Sunderland won't struggle this year, I think, but they won't win against Spurs. Spurs have started badly, like Liverpool, and this is the perfect opportunity to get a springboard.
Verdict: Away

Bolton vs Newcastle
The battle of the Fat Sams, Big and Little. Newcastle under Big Sam will want to prove that the inconsistencies of the last few seasons are a thing of the past. Big Sam will have a more pragmatic approach, but with Viduka and Martins against a Ben Haim-less defence, it'll be no contest.
Verdict: Away

Front pairing

I've just realised that if the purple one goes for a pairing of tevez and rooney it'll be the ugliest front pairing ever. Defenders will be running scared of them, frightened they might catch ugliness off them.

First weekend

It starts again tomorrow and I'm excited about it. Lot of good matches, grudge matches and some top notch players.

The Death of the Incredible Hulk

Finally, The Incredible Hulk saga stops running, as David "Bruce" Banner-Tevez gets caught by the patient Government Agent Alex Ferguson, aka The Purple One, having escaped the clutches of Eggman and his Hammermen.

This is a more important transfer than Torres. If Liverpool had ambition, I believe this would have been the deal for them; his obvious friendship with Mascherano, couple with Mascherano's excellent form for Liverpool, would have put them in striking distance of the league. Tevez' form for West Ham at the end of last season was that of a Top Four striker; scoring goals, setting them up, dominating matches. Man Utd have got the deal of the summer with him and I am frightened of Man Utd's attacking prowess. Rooney must be scared with Tevez competing for position with him, and that can only be a great thing.

Punchbag

David Moyes thinks that Everton can punch above their weight this season.

I think they can, though it's a game of brinkmanship with his thin squad. Back in the 80s, before Sky invented football, teams like Nottingham Forest (who are they you might ask) and Everton won the First Division title (not the same First Division which Forest are competing for this season) with only 14 players used in the entire season. The game is different now, not least due to having been invented by a television company in the intervening period, but teams have longer seasons, play more games in Europe, and have much bigger squads. There's an argument that the current top teams are better than those of the past - time was, a team could get promoted and win the league; I'm sure Sunderland fancy their chances come May.

Everton's troubles tend to be sine and cosine:

they do well one season and get into Europe;
they struggle in Europe, which stretches their always thin squad, and finish bottom half;
they do well and get into Europe;
etc.

To break this cycle, they're going to need a lot of luck with injuries, but more importantly, hope that their flexibile squad players like Jagielka and Phil Neville can not only paper over cracks but excel in these positions. Getting another full season out of Lescott will also help; it's one less position to have to cover over.

Red or Dead

Rafa's beard is talking up his strikers.

He said: "I am not thinking about Torres scoring 20 or more goals. What I would like would be to see is Voronin scoring 10 to 15 goals, Crouch, Kuyt and Torres all the same. If we can score goals too from midfield to add to that, that is my aim and that would make me happy. I am not sure you need one player who can score 20 goals, you need more options and goals from everywhere in the team.

He has spent a lot of money on his forwards and there is a tremendous amount of pressure on them. He's been fairly canny here, pitching Torres at the same level as Kuyt, Crouch and Voronin, despite costing almost double what the other three have. The pressure is on Torres, and consequently on Rafa, to score a lot of goals - the fans are expecting the same sort of return that they got from England's Michael Owen back in the day, and that they will mount a series challenge this term.

As I state below, I'm unconvinced. If Liverpool play an attacking formation this year, then I'll back them, but I remain unconvinced. They've got a tricky start - away to Little Martin's boys; not one of the more exciting prospects, Liverpool away vs O'Neill's Villa - which is not what Rafa would have wished, what with Liverpool's history of slooooooow starts under him, undermining some excellent form later on in the season.

Then again, perhaps the beard has some sort of anti-Samson effect - growing the flamboyant goatee will allow his attacking flair to come out?

Little And Large

The latest in what will be a long-running saga until Big Sam's Newcastle clearly outstrip Little Sammy's relegation bound Bolton.

There was a quote from Phil Gartside after Sammy's appointment that he was the coach he'd appoint now, and he wouldn't appoint Big Sam. I really can't see Little Sammy being a success there; there are too many egos that need kept in check by a big personality (sorry, a Big personality), and their dressing room will fall apart. Anelka and Diouf need kid glove treatment, and are unlikely to get it - one of them will be away by the end of August, the other in January.

Prediction - Week 1

Here's what I'm predicting:

Arsenal v Fulham 3-0
Aston Villa v Liverpool 1-1
Bolton v Newcastle 1-2
Chelsea v Birmingham 3-0
Derby v Portsmouth 0-2
Everton v Wigan Ath 3-0
Man Utd v Reading 3-0
Middlesbro' v Blackburn 0-1
Sunderland v Tottenham 0-2
West Ham v Man City 2-1

Update after the weekend.

Prediction - Summary

I'll score myself against this at the end of the season, and maybe on a monthly basi if I can be bothered:

1 Man Utd
----------------
2 Chelsea
3 Arsenal
4 Tottenham
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5 Liverpool
6 Newcastle
7 Everton
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8 Portsmouth
9 Blackburn
10 Aston Villa
11 West Ham
12 Man City
13 Sunderland
14 Fulham
15 Birmingham
16 Reading
17 Bolton
----------------
18 Middlesbrough
19 Derby
20 Wigan

Now, I shall do some news stories.

Prediction - Wigan Athletic

Finally, well...

In: Antoine Sibierski, Titus Bramble, Mario Melchiot, Andreas Granqvist, Carlo Nash, Jason Koumas, Michael Brown

Out: Leighton Baines, Lee McCulloch, Matt Jackson, Arjan de Zeeuw, David Unsworth, Andreas Johansson

Tells a lot. Losing their best players, bringing in utter dump. Melchiot and Bumble will bring back strong memories of The Chuckle Brothers at Newcastle. Sibierski is going to be their top striker. Koumas is totally unproven at this level.

In summary, Paul Jewell is a manager I've never really liked, but keeping Bradford and Wigan up points to him having something. Which Chris Hutchings destroys in the next season. His "trick" of virtually relegating Bradford after 11 matches and 7 points looks like being repeated here. He seems to have absolutely no idea about which players are any use in the Premier League. I have no belief that I will have egg on my face with this one.

PREDICTION - 20th

Prediction - West Ham United

Last season was ever-so-slightly eventful for the Irons...

Shorn of The Incredible Hulk, arch scumbag Craig Belmy should get them goals. Scott Parker for Reo-Coker might work for them, especially if there's less dressing room disruption - not that reuniting Bowyer, Belmy and Dire will end that. If the Dire deal goes through, which it inevitably will, then they should have some flair, albeit at the expense of even more popularity. Freddie Ljungberg is a big risk - a top player, but he has waned over the last few years, and I expect him to be in more pants adverts than penalty boxes this season. West Ham's transfer policy of buying anyone seems to be matched with selling anyone, too - they will miss Benayoun and Konchesky. I remember Roy Carroll was brilliant in the 99/00 edition of Championship Manager, but has never captured that fictional quality at the myriad clubs he's been at since then, and has been shipped off to Rangers.

Biscuitman Eggert Magnusson will be expecting big things from grumpy Curbs this season, and I just don't see them doing that well.

PREDICTION - 11th

Prediction - Tottenham Hotspur

A big summer for Big Martin (not any taller than Little Martin, but bigger in girth). A lot of big money signings, continuing his policy of signing youngsters, echoing the success Arsene has had along the road. Darren Bent is viewed as a risk, rather than providing more options to last seasons trio - Berbatov has had his first season, and should replicate his awesome form this season, Keane and Bent can do the flanks in a 4-3-3, and Defoe could bother playing well every so often with three strikers ahead of him. At the back, they've improved with the signing of Younes Kaboul, and in midfield the wonderfully-named Kevin-Prince Boateng should add some steel. Danny Rose is promising, and could help towards the end of the season. They desperately need a new goalkeeper, though.

The shadowy Bahamas-based ENIC corporation will expect Big Martin to push on from two successive 5ths and get third. They will score a LOT of goals, and if they leak fewer, they'll do it. And maybe more.

PREDICTION - 4th

Prediction - Sunderland

A big conundrum for this season - along with Spurs/Arsenal and Big Sam/Little Sam - how will Roy Keane do in the Premier League as a manager? His record at Sunderland last year was brilliant; with a team of third-rate players, he took them from top to bottom. He has strengthened the team this summer - most notably at the back with Craig Gordon being the best British goalkeeper, and Russell Anderson being the best Aberdeen defender since Willie Miller and Alex McLeish in the early 80s. Kieran Richardson and Michael Chopra for over £5m each are big gambles as neither looked particularly hot at Man Utd and Newcastle, but if I was playing for Royston, I wouldn't even dream of underperforming, even putting my shoes on.

I think Niall Quinn will be expecting survival, maybe a push towards 10th. Next season is their big trial by fire, but they'll do much better than Birmingham and Derby.

PREDICTION - 13th

Prediction - Reading

They will struggle. Second Season Struggle or whatever you want to call it, but they'll be looking to stay up, as Steve Coppell knows too well. Losing Sidwell to Chelsea will really harm them. Consolidation is the name of the game for them. I'd normally tip them for relegation, but there are some utterly dump teams there this season.

PREDICTION - 16th

Prediction - Portsmouth

I've been a fan of Dave "Harry" Redknapp since his West Ham camera-avoiding days, cheeky wheeler-dealering, harping on about "ve fings Joe Cole does in training", Michael Douglas Sr his trusted Assistant. His ride at Pompey has been bumpy; promotion on the back of wheeler-dealering, progress on the back of wheeler-dealering, leaving due to not enough wheeler-dealering, relegating Southampton due to wheeler-dealering, saving Pompey due to wheeler-dealering and getting them back into the top half on wheeler dealering. Indeed, his new owner - the not at all dodgy Alexandre Gaydamak - has allowed his wheeler-dealering to soar to new heights:

In: David Nugent, John Utaka, Sylvain Distin, Hermann Hreidarsson, Sulley Muntari, Martin Cranie, Arnold Mvuemba, Callum Reynolds

That's a lot of quality - Distin will assist Nokia Campbell at the back; Nugent, Muntari and Utaka will batter in the goals. And not really a lot of cheeky sales or swap deals:

Out: Svetoslav Todorov, Daryl Fordyce, Andy Griffin, Collins Mbesuma

That's tidying up the squad more than anything.

Gaydamak will be expecting a return on his investment, and cheeky wheeler-dealering on this scale has to afford Pompey a European place. If not, well...

PREDICTION - 8th

Prediction - Newcastle

I'm expecting decent things of Newcastle this season. Despite a spendthrift new regime, Big Sam has bought some top quality players - Newcastle finally have the defence they've needed since 1992, and the strikeforce has only become better with the purchase of Mark Viduka, giving the side the Alan Shearer replacement it needs. Something that might be key to getting into Europe is the flexibility of Geremi and Alan Smith; both players can deputise for Joey Barton when he's injured or incarcerated. Buying in two strikers seems a strange thing, but with Michael Owen's injury problems and the continual rumours surrounding Oba Martins, it may prove wise.

Big Sam's biggest challenges, other than clearing a Full English three times a day, are to ensure that the chaotic injury crises of the past few years is resolved, and that idiotic thugs like Dyer, Bowyer and Bellamy are managed properly - buying one in in Joey Barton is a risk; providing he stays out of jail he should perform well. Shipping out the worst defender ever (Titus Bumble) can only be a good thing - his newlook defence needs to gel around the promising Steven Taylor, providing the passionate Geordie lynchpin to the side. There are a lot of good youngsters at the club, ironically developed by ex-boss Glenn Roeder, and the future could be bright. But how often has that been said about the Barcodes?

Expectation for the new owner will be top half, possibly Europe, probably a cup. And they might do it.

PREDICTION - 6th

Prediction - Middlesbrough

Selling your strikers and buying defenders isn't going to result in attractive football. I can see Man City's non-scoring record being annihilated by this lot. Aliadere and Yakubu are expected to lead the line - Yak's recent transfer request and rumoured interest in the lumbering Mido point to a significant weakening up front. Woodgate is, when fit, one of England's best defenders, but where the goals going to come from?

Steve Gibson will be expecting Europe, and will get relegation.

PREDICTION - 18th

Prediction - Manchester United

After some splurting offensive football last season to win the last OFFICIAL PREMIERSHIP, The Purple One will be looking to win the Champions League and the league this season. His transfer dealings this summer has bought redundancy in most positions - Hargreaves/Carrick, Nani/Giggs, Anderson/Scholes, Tevez/Rooney to go with Ronaldo/Park - but still has the oversight of having only one centre forward in Louis Saha and his injury troubles (I don't expect Solksjaer to feature much outside of the Carling Cup). At the back, they can look thin with Wes Brown and John O'Shea as not quite top class understudies to Ferdinand and Vidic - that said, the flexibility of the likes of O'Shea and Brown will allow cover for Evra and Che Neville if needed. Van Der Sar, miraculous penalty saves in the McDonalds Community Shield aside, might wane over the season, and Ferguson will be hoping that Foster recovers quickly and provides competition soon.

I can see Man U absolutely destroying some teams - imagine the scene that they are 7-0 up at Derby or Wigan, and Rooney and Ronaldo come off for Saha and Nani; they're not going to let up, such is the competition. I expect them to tonk at least one team 10-0. And to win the league.

PREDICTION - 1st

Prediction - Manchester City

Sven, Sven, Sven... His year out of the game has obviously been spent searching Europe for some top young players. It seems very much to me a long-term tactic. After last season's horrendously dull performance - I was so bored of them, that I can't think where they finished - dodgy human rights expoliter Thaksin Shinamatra will be looking to stabilise the side in mid-table and acclimatise some of the new players. I expect them to struggle in the league initially, but do well in a cup. And for the fans to have to resort to some other form of insomnia cure.

PREDICTION - 12th

Prediction - Liverpool

Last season's appalling Champions League final performance left big questions surrounding Rafa's negative tactics; Milan had peaked against Man U, just as Man U had peaked against Roma, yet they didn't exploit this and Kaka's anonymity. Bringing on defenders when trying to win the match, playing Harry Kewell...

Against this, Rafa - now adorned with a rubbish goatee - has promised attacking football. He's brought in some hyped up attackers - Babel, Benayoun, Voronin and, of course, Torres - and shipped out some of his (and others) biggest mistakes - Bellamy, Cisse, Sinama Pongolle, Fowler, Dudek, Zenden. Indeed, a strength of Rafa's has been to admit mistakes and rectify them; Liverpool's billionaire owners and dolescum fans will be praying that he amends his tactics. Gillett and Hicks will be expecting the title for their (gross) outlay, but the net outlay probably shows that their strength in depth is suspect. Failure to provide Carragher and Agger with meaningful back-up could cost them - Sami Hyypia is unlikely to be as strong as in past seasons.

Bringing so many players in might result in chaos and one of Liverpool's infamous poor starts. I think this will be a poor year on the home front, but Champions League semis at least, and possibly another cup.

PREDICTION - 5th

Prediction - Fulham

The days of Fayed's largesse seem to have been long gone, but Lawrie Sanchez has been trusted with £20m to spend, with a view to getting Fulham into mid-table obscurity. His work at Northern Ireland, like Mark Hughes at Wales and Walter Smith at Scotland, meant that he was going to get poached by a Premiership club sooner rather than later. After Cookie Coleman (surely the worst nickname ever - he once at a cookie on a team bus) managed adequately on a miniscule budget, Sanchez came in, did nothing and relied on other team's ineptitude to save them.

That said, he has bought well. He's bought some of the Norn Iron boys who have done so well for him - David Healy will score Fulham's goals this season - with a hope to installing the Wimbledon Crazy Gang spirit of yesteryear at Fulham. They won't set the world alight, but they'll be okay - probably a decent run before an end of season malaise sets in.

PREDICTION - 14th

Prediction - Everton

Tricky one to call. Like Blackburn, they've got limited funds and have over-achieved due to a top quality manager. I like some of the players they've bought it, but they're still weak up front - buying Yakubu would peg them at the same level as Spurs. One of their strengths, and I believe this will be key to a lot of teams this season, is flexibility; Phil Jagielka demonstrates this with his ability to play virtually anywhere, including in goal. Leighton Baines will be a good signing for them, and they'll be hoping that James Vaughan's progress continues after his injury. Joleon Lescott was one of the stars of the last season, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a call-up to England, though I suspect McClown would have to go first.

Their expectation will be to continue to progress in the manner of previous (odd) seasons, and avoid the even seasons' underachievement. A UEFA Cup place would be a minimum, a Champions League place would be a dream. Their squad is perhaps too light for this season, but they look like they're going to get a couple of top quality players before the end of the month.

PREDICTION - 7th

Prediction - Derby County

Since their takeover last summer, Derby have flourished. Two years ahead of a three year plan to get back into the Premier League, they will be overstretched here. Still, the £60m will come in handy with rebuilding a side. Their expectation is to go back down, with fluking survival an outside chance. They've bought some okay players, but more geared towards winning the 2008-2009 Championship than surviving this season's Premier League. Still, they won't be the worst team in the league...

PREDICTION - 19th

Prediction - Chelsea

The pressure's on the Special One. Can he regain the title? Can he get his midfield to work? Can he get last season's superstars to perform?

Signing the superstars of Shevchenko and Ballack damaged their team spirit, as well as confusing their best formation - the aggressive wingplay of Robben and Cole was redundant, and Shaun Wright-Philips pace was largely ignored.

The injuries to Cech and Terry effectively lost Chelsea the title - signing Tal Ben Haim and Alex, work permit pending, will strengthen in defence. Sidwell and Pizarro will help them through the African Nations Cup, which will decimate their first team. They need Drogba to perform again, Lampard to score again, and Essien to continue his development, without the stifling need to deputise in central defence. Cashley will have a better season, and they've always got the underrated Wayne Bridge to fall back on. Malouda will give them the flair they've lost through Robben, and should give them the consistency and positive attitude he's lacked. If Joe Cole stays fit, he'll be a key player for Chelsea and England. What happens up front is anyone's guess, but I imagine Drogba with Pizarro as reserve, and Shevchenko reserved for Champions League.

Expectation as ever will be Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup and Carling Cup. They'll win two of those.

PREDICTION - 2nd

Prediction - Bolton Wanderers

Little Sammy has the weight of Big Sam on his shoulders. Turning a provincial club into consistent top half performers required a lot of skill and ingenuity as well as a big character. Big Sam's departure to Newcastle will definitely affect Bolton.

Little Sammy has continued Big Sam's eccentric transfer policy of bringing in failures to rehabilitate, and unknown foreigners to exploit, but has shied away from the Bolton Care Home signings of yesteryear, bringing the average age down. Losing Tal Ben Haim will create problems, and the squad has been trimmed of some wastage. Keeping Anelka and Diouf will give them the goals they need to survive, providing their mental rehabilitation at the hands of Big Sam isn't thwarted, though they might lose them before the transfer window closes. The likes of Gary Speed and Kevin Nolan are too canny to let Bolton go down without a fight, but if their potentially explosive dressing room does turn into a fight, even they may be helpless.

Chairman Phil Gartside will be expecting a good UEFA Cup run and pushing on to challenge the Big Four. Everyone else seems to be thinking that if they stay up it'll be a miracle. I'd put money on Paul Jewell being manager by the end of the season, probably keeping them up at the last minute. They will definitely struggle.

PREDICTION - 17th

Prediction - Blackburn Rovers

Not a busy summer at Blackburn, but keeping Benni McCarthy will be like signing a new player. He was their best player last season and will be again this year. The players Mark Hughes bought will strengthen the depth of their team, and some of the chaff has been sorted out - losing the hopeless Francis Jeffers is a great piece of business. David Bentley should progress further this year and add some flair to a tough team.

They have slipped back a bit in terms of spending and budget, but they'll be looking to tread water while rumours of American buyouts splash around.

PREDICTION - 9th

Prediction - Birmingham City

Birmingham are going to face a tough season. I don't think they'll do a Reading or Wigan and take the league by storm, but Steve Bruce has been round this particular block before. He's bought in some players seasoned in surviving a relegation battle, as well as some promising foreign players. Muamba might come good for them, and Garry O'Connor should score enough goals to keep them up, despite his horrendous haircut. Turning a £1m profit on DJ Campbell in six months is the sort of business that Bruce has performed well at Brummieland.

The new Chinese owners will be expecting big things, but not immediately. Survival is their goal this season, and while I can see periods of struggle, I can also see good runs that will save them.

PREDICTION - 15th

Prediction - Aston Villa

Bigger things were expected of Little Martin when he arrived at Villa Park last summer, heralding Randy Lerner's new regime at the club. Expectations were that he'd throw foreign money after a challenge for the Top Four, reminiscent of O'Neill's early years at Celtic. Instead, Martin's had to use his experience from Leicester and keep his budget tight whilst still improving the quality of the first team, if not the squad. The four players he's brought in are decent; Nigel Reo-Coker (who should really be England Men's Hockey Captain with a name like that) should add some quality to their midfield, Marlon Harewood has potential that never really blossomed at West Ham, and the other two should prove useful over the course of the season. Shipping out a lot of O'Leary's dead wood, for cash money in most cases, will help them - while they have a thin squad, there's no real point in having a big squad if it's full of Aaron Hughes, Gavin McCann and Lee Hendrie.

I think O'Neill and Lerner will be looking to improve on last season, and will see a top half finish as the next step. He instilled a great team spirit last season, as evidenced by their early season form, and brought in his favoured big bruiser up front in John Carew, which could see them take points away from home.

PREDICTION - 10th

Prediction - Arsenal

A lot of players shipped out this summer, most notably Thierry Henry taking his own particular brand of sulking and disappearing to Barcelona, where he'll inevitably do well and win the league. The others shipping out are largely squad players - Ljungberg is past his best, Reyes turns a loan to Real into a move to Atletico, Aliadere is off to get Boro relegated - and won't really be missed. Arsene has spent the last few seasons stock-piling some top quality youngsters - Fabregas, Van Persie, Walcott, Toure - and blooding them in the Premiership. This season is key to those little boys becoming the big boys, and Wengers future and reputation hinges on this. He has created three excellent sides at Arsenal, moving people on when they are past their peak (Vieira, Overmars) or past caring (Campbell, Anelka), often for a massive profit. His transfer record is impressive, almost breaking even over the ten years he's been there. He's bought cannily; Da Silva will give them more options than Henry and allow them to restore their killer team mentality, essential for their brand of football to flourish. The other three incomers are going to strengthen areas of weakness, but I feel that Mad Jens needed replacing - if he'd moved earlier, he could have bought in Craig Gordonfor cheaper than the £9m Sunderland have paid. It could cost Arsene, and Fabianski will probably have to deliver at some point this season.

Predicting how they'll do is one of the most difficult, in a difficult season. The big questions surround Spurs pushing on to fourth at the expense of Arsenal, and how Arsenal will cope without Le Sulk. The board will expect development, if only in terms of improving the experience in the first team and maintaining their Top Four place, with a decent European run. They'll be anywhere between 3rd and 5th, depending on how the new players and the youngsters perform - I can't see a title challenge, but I can't see them slipping too far if they do slip.

PREDICTION - 3rd